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Rethinking the Origin of Earthquakes and the Implication for Earthquake Prediction
Earthquakes--the sudden movements of the earth’s crust--remind us of two things: 1) the ferocity of the earth’s interior and 2) our poor understanding of the reasons for these events. The prevailing theory of the cause of earthquakes is the catastrophic release of “tectonic forces” that gradually build stress in rocks that comprise the Earth’s crust. Tectonic forces, according to the U.S. Geologic Survey (USGS) glossary, are subterranean forces of unknown origin, “that alter the surface configuration of the earth as a result of [plate tectonics].* Plate tectonics is the theory of huge crust-plates wandering about the surface of the earth, whose interaction with one another results in mountain chains, deep valleys, and other surface features, as well as earthquakes and tsunamis. Relatively few people know that this popular Western theory of the origin of earthquakes—crustal plates interacting with one another—originated only in the early twentieth century following invention of the seismograph, which caused the scientific community to downplay eyewitness accounts of earthquakes of which there are thousands since antiquity. Paths of inquiry that eyewitness accounts normally bring about were also lost for decades. This phenomenon of disparaging the validity of direct human observations in favor of technology has been lamented by the late astrophysicist Thomas Gold (1920-2004).** A small but growing number of scientists, including Gold, believe that eyewitness accounts of earthquakes, ranging from antiquity to today, strongly suggest that gas eruptions are the events that initiate earthquakes, rather than rocks sliding past, under or into one another. Specifically, Gold posits persuasively in his book “The Deep Hot Biosphere” (2001)*** that hydrocarbons deep in the earth exert tremendous pressure as they upwell through the earth’s crust, finally reaching a pressure point that fractures the overlying rock, thereby causing earthquake-related effects, such as rumblings, fogs, clouds, and flames, as well as serious rock displacement and tsunamis. Gold writes: “After the puff of fluid passes into the atmosphere, the [rock’s] pore spaces that had been created in transit may collapse; such a collapse offers a sound explanation for the vertical displacement of chunks of crust during earthquakes and for the volumetric changes in sea floor or continental shelf that would be needed to induce tsunamis.” (p. 144). Startling eyewitness accounts of the Central Mississippi area New Madrid earthquake series of 1811 to 1812 consistently refer to the eruption of flammable and noisy gases (see below) Ever the brash speculator, Gold suggests that the 1906 San Francisco earthquake, which was accompanied by large fires thought due to the fracture of gas pipes in the ground, in part may have been due to flammable gases streaming up out of cracks! Eyewitnesses wrote that “[f]lames were seen on hills that had no gas pipes and also on roads and fields in nearby San Jose.” New Madrid Earthquake Eyewitness Reports**** 1. “The air felt as if impregnated with a vapour, which lasted for some time.” 2. “A rumbling noise like that of distant thunder” 3. “Noises resembling the rattling of a carriage over a pavement” 4. “Immediately before the earthquake, a red appearance of the clouds, which had much darkened the water for twenty-four hours immediately before the shock” 5. “At the end of the first and longest shock, there were, in a direction due north, two flashes of light, at the interval of about a minute, very much like distant lightning.” 6. “The inhabitants were suddenly alarmed by a violent agitation in the earth. It was accompanied by a peculiar sound, proceeding from southwest to northeast. Immediately after the shock had ceased, a very large volume of something like smoke was discovered to rise in the quarter whence the sound appeared to come; and pursuing nearly the same course, finally settled in the north, exhibiting the appearance of a black cloud.” 8. “The day preceding was extremely dark and gloomy there, and warmth and smokiness distinguished the weather for some time after.” 9. “The atmosphere was of a dingy and lurid aspect, and gleams and flashes of light were frequently visible around the horizon, in different directions, generally ascending from the earth. Sometimes sounds were heard, like wind rustling through the trees, but not resembling thunder.” 10. “A rumbling distant noise.” 11. “The sky was obscured by a thick and hazy fog, without a breath of wind.” 12. “A vapour hovered over every thing, and shrouded the morning in awful gloom.” 13. “[Indians] relate, that on the said 17th December the waters of the lake appeared to tremble, and boil like a great pot over a hot fire; and immediately a vast number of large tortoises rose to the surface, and swam rapidly to the shore, where they were taken for food.” 14. “A few seconds before the motion was felt, he and others heard a considerable roaring or rumbling noise, resembling a blaze of fire acted upon by wind.” 15. “In this last shock, the water in the river Mississippi was thrown into commotion, bubbling like boiling water; and, in a few minutes, the whole atmosphere was filled with smoke or fog, so that a boat could not be seen within twenty paces from the water's edge; and the houses were so shrouded as not to be seen fifty feet; this smoke continued all the forepart of that day.” 16. “In the county of Christian, ( Kentucky,) a fine and fresh spring was observed to run very muddy for several hours. On examining it, after the feculence had settled, he found it to be so strongly impregnated with sulphur; so much so that it was spoiled for domestic uses; indeed it had been converted to one of the strongest brimstone springs he ever met with.” 17.”But in five minutes it became very dark; and a vapour which seemed to impregnate the atmosphere, had a disagreeable smell, and produced a difficulty of breathing. 18. “Accounts from Little Prairie stated that ponds had been converted to upland, and dry land to lakes; that the banks of the river had sunk and fallen in to great extent; that cracks had been formed in the earth; that water had gushed out; and that there was a strange and chaotic mixture of the elements. In some places, sand, mud, water, and stone-coal were reported to have been thrown up thirty yards high.” 19. “The bottom of the Mississippi river, two under miles west of this place, was cracked in some places fifteen feet in width, and cast up warm water sufficient to inundate the settlement from one to two feet. In this situation, the poor inhabitants sought for the highest ground, where some remained for seventeen days, looking for the earth to swallow them up. Indians who were two hundred and fifty miles beyond the Mississippi, and about five hundred miles west of this place, relate sights of horror, in the tumbling down of rocks, the fall of trees, and the lights of fire.” 20. “Flashes of light similar to those seen on the 16th of December were perceived toward the southwest.” 21. “He states the appearance of frequent lights during the commotions, and that from one of the low islands in the Mississippi, where he was, sand, coal, and warm water were ejected from holes in the earth.” 22. “Some of the coal was collected by Mr. Pierce, and transmitted to me. About the 1st of May, 1812, I made a few experiments upon it at the city of Washington. I found it to be very inflammable; it consumed with a bright and vivid blaze. A copious smoke was emitted from it, whose smell was not at all sulphureous, but btuminous in a high degree.” 23. “Three large extraordinary fires, in the air, one appeared in an easterly direction, one in the north, and one in the south. Their continuance was several hours; their size as large as a house on fire; the motion of the blaze quite visible, but no sparks appeared.” 24. “Awakened by a tremendous roaring noise, felt his vessel violently shaken, and observed the trees over the bank falling in every direction, and agitated like reeds on a windy day, and many sparks of fire emitted from the earth.” 25. “I visited a spring of about the distance of fourteen miles from my residence. It was situated on the bank of a creek that issued forth strong sulphureous water. The smell was evident to a considerable distance. It received its sulphureous impregnation from a very heavy earthquake that occurred in January. Before that event it was a limestone water. On that occasion a new limestone spring broke out about twenty feet above the original spring; and to this day, the respective fountains pour forth their calcarious and sulphureous waters, in distinct currents. Some springs ceased to run for some time; and others ran muddy several hours after the earth had been convulsed.” 26. “We have had a very wet spring, summer, and autumn, with a loaded atmosphere; and I have no doubt much impregnated with sulphureous particles.” 27. “The favourers of the several hypotheses invented to explain the awful phenomena of earthquakes, may all find arguments to support them, in the preceding recitals. The mechanical reasoner will find the great strat of the earth falling in some places, rising in others, and agitated everywhere. The chemical expositor will discover evidence enough of subterranean fire in the coal, hot water, vapour, and air bubbles which were ejected and extricated. The electrical philosopher will deduce from the lights, the noises, and the velocity of their motions, conclusions favourable to the origin of earthquakes.” 28. “The site of this town was evidently settled down at least fifteen feet, and not more than a half a mile below the town there does not appear to be any alteration on the bank of the river, but back from the river a small distance, the numerous large ponds or lakes, as they are called, which covered a great part of the country were nearly dried up. The beds of some of them are elevated above their former banks several feet, producing an alteration of ten, fifteen to twenty feet, from their original state. And lately it has been discovered that a lake was formed on the opposite side of the Mississippi, in the Indian country, upwards of one hundred miles in length, and from one to six miles in width, of the depth of ten to fifty feet. It has communication with the river at both ends, and it is conjectured that it will not be many years before the principal part, if not the whole of the Mississippi, will pass that way.” For eyewitness accounts of several other major earthquakes, visit http://www.people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/Earthq.html.***** Many features of earthquakes seem to have no explanation in the tectonic stress theory of the origin of earthquakes, according to Gold. First, sudden release of tectonic stress in the rocks would NOT cause earthquake tsunamis. Rather “a rapid and very large change in some volume is necessary to set up these waves, and that volumetric change has to be of a magnitude similar to the volume of ocean water that has been displaced to make either the negative or the positive phase of the great wave…[S]inking of an area of ocean floor due to the sudden escape of gases would be a possibility as would the rapid expansion of gases that make their way from the ocean floor to the surface. There are various reports of violent bubbling or areas of the ocean, and even of flames emerging out of the water.” Indeed, in the great Alaskan earthquake of March 28, 1964 some stretches of land sank within seconds by as much as 30 feet. One might think that the land suddenly became denser. But rocks are not compressible to such an extent nor would such compression occur suddenly, according to Gold. Rather, “pore spaces that had expanded the rock with high-pressure gas must have been involved, and when the gas abruptly found an escape route, the pores collapsed. No fluid other than a gas could have supported the rock and then got out of the way in seconds.” (p. 145) Second, the tectonic stress theory of the origin of earthquakes does not explain “deep source earthquakes,” according to Gold, which occur at depths down to 700 kilometers where the pressure is known to be so great that sudden fracture CANNOT occur. Examples are the Bolivian earthquake on June 8, 1994, (8.2), which emanated from 600 kilometers down. “The friction between two masses that slide against each other would be so great that this would far exceed any mechanical breaking strength of any rock. Any movement at such depths would occur only as a gradual adjustment proceeding in step with the driving force that causes the movement,” writes Gold. Third, “earthquake hotspots”—areas of more-or-less continuous earthquakes that are not associated with fault lines (e.g., Flathead Lake, Montana, and Enola, Arkansas) exist all over the earth. “Such spots clearly need a different explanation from that of plates pressing against each other. Possibly the explanation has to do with gases forcing their way up and causing fractures in the rock to open and shut repeatedly,” suggests Gold. Fourth, “earth mounds” and much larger “mud volcanoes” are strongly related to earthquake activity and exist in many areas of the globe, e.g., Yellowstone National Park and Azerbaijan on the north slopes of the Caucasus. Gases, which catch fire by electrostatic sparks from the friction of fast moving rock grains, propel the eruption of mud volcanoes. Again, such formations need a different explanation than plates grinding against each other. What are the implications of the Gold theory of upwelling gases as the cause of earthquakes? The most important implications center on predicting earthquakes. Gold writes: “The Western scientific view is that earthquakes are caused by the same kinds of tectonic stress that are believed to have shuffled massive blocks of continental and oceanic plates in the course of time. This assumption, coupled with the preference for data collected by precise and impersonal seismographs, means that eyewitness accounts …are usually of little interest to Western scientists, and their existence is not even known by many seismologists. In China, Japan, and the Soviet Union, however, much more attention is paid to gas phenomena. Japan even has a “laboratory of Earthquake Chemistry.” The US is far behind in this field, not because it lacks the technology, but because it took a wrong turn some time ago and is not open to a change in course. “Surely, however, the citizens of earthquake-prone regions will be more concerned with obtaining a timely warning than with taking sides in a scientific controversy. Observations of the activity of subsurface gases, such as changes in ground-water levels in water wells and changes in gas composition or pressure about a water table—are simple and comparatively inexpensive to make, and they can be obtained objectively. To my mind, it is high time that California and the Central Mississippi region acquire the knowledge and experience in this field that will make meaningful prediction possible. Instrumentation operated by scientists should be one aspect of an early-earning system; public earthquake education and a reporting network should be another. In tandem, the two would ensure the widest possible coverage for the observation of the many phenomenons—qualitative as well as quantitative—that may be relevant for predictions.” (pp. 160) Sources: *USGS Glossary: http://www.uwsp.edu/geo/faculty/ritter/glossary/s_u/tectonic_forces.html. **See Biot #182: “Oil Doesn’t Come from Squashed Ferns and Fish??” available at: http://www.semp.us/biots/biot_182.html. *** Thomas Gold: “The Deep Hot Biosphere: The Myth of Fossil Fuels” (2001) Springer-Verlag, NY, Chapter 8 “Rethinking Earthquakes,” pp. 141-164. **** “A Detailed Narrative of the Earthquakes which occurred on the 16th day of December, 1811” (Transactions of the Literary and Philosophical Society of NY, vol. 1, pp. 281-307) Samuel L. Mitchill, Representative in Congress Transcription and notes, Susan E. Hough, U.S. Geological Survey, Pasadena (May, 2000) available at: http://pasadena.wr.usgs.gov/office/hough/mitchill.html. ***** Thomas Gold: “Eyewitness Accounts of Several Major Earthquakes” available at: http://www.people.cornell.edu/pages/tg21/eyewit.html.
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